Update 2: The Pond, a COVID-19 Story by KimB

Update 2 for the puzzle The Pond ^{1 2} and some additional puzzle pieces.

The previous update asked:

In the picture of the pond, which puzzle piece will come next?

Here are some possible answers and more aspects to consider.

The Puzzle

UK COVID-19 Cases 10-10-2020

Which way did it move?

UK COVID-19 Cases 10-28-2020

Which way did you predict the pond to move?
(There are no wrong answers, just different answers.)

A = The low part of the wave. It is not at zero
B = A dip in the numbers. Could be fewer people got sick. Could be testing failed. Could be the numbers were not reported.
C = A significant rise in the numbers. An indication that the pond is getting full much faster than previously.

Future Waves

Wave 2 followed by Wave 3

Here the graph is mirrored to show what might happen in the future. Wave 1 and Wave 2 on the left and in the middle. Wave 3 is on the right side. There maybe a Wave 4 and a Wave 5 and a Wave 6.

It's up to you, the individual, what will happen in Wave 3 and onwards. Except, you don't really get much choice as your government has already decided what kind of Wave they want and planned (or not) appropriately.


Up and Down

What goes UP also goes Down

Notice that just as the numbers go up fast, they can come down just as fast. 8 days to fill the pond. 8 days to empty the pond.

But this does not take the pond to zero. There is still 1% left and it will rise and fall over and over and over and over. This is what makes the waves happen. By not going to zero, there is another wave coming: 22 days later or 8 days later, but it will come.

If we stop earlier, say at day 5 or day 6, the pond will fill up faster since there is already a good foot hold. This is why Wave 2 and Wave 3+ are harsher and more difficult and events happen much faster.


Lockdown and Open Cycles

COVID-19 Lockdown and Open Cycles

Things get repetitive at this point:

Every time the pond fills up = Lockdown
Every time the pond empties = Open

Now at this point you might be starting to see the full puzzle: You might ask, How to stop the cycle?

It's actually easy to do. You have to go to zero. Do not stop part way. Do not feed the virus more hosts.

So, why isn't your government doing this? A one time 30-45 day lockdown and it is over? Universal erradication in cooperation with other countries?

That's a very good question.

1. https://mrsbizzybsayshello.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-pond-covid-19-story-by-kimb.html
2. https://mrsbizzybsayshello.blogspot.com/2020/10/update-pond-covid-19-story-by-kimb.html