The Pond, a COVID-19 Story by KimB

This is a story about a pond. This is a story about COVID-19.

It's not the usual story about ponds. It's not the usual story about COVID-19.

This story requires the reader to participate.
This story requires you to physically do something, but it's not hard.

You will need:

1 piece of paper - fairly large - 8x10 common paper will do.
1 pair of scissors - sharp enough to cut the paper.
1 pencil or pen to write on the paper.

Optional

A calculator - physical or electronic or from your smartphone. Nothing fancy needed.

Paper Pen Scissors Calculator

In this story the pond is covered with algae.
In this story we know that the algae doubles every day.
In this story we want to know how long did it take for the algae to cover the whole pond.

The pond is the paper. You can write POND at the top of the page.

Now comes the hard part. A series of steps writing on the paper and cutting it with scissors.

1. In one corner of the paper write the number 1 and 100%.
   This is day 1 and the pond is completely covered.


2. Cut the paper in 2. You now have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the part you wrote on in step 1.
   Label the new portion 2 and 50%.
   This is day 2 and the pond is covered 50%


3. Cut the day 2 portion in half. You will have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the portion marked 2 aside with the day 1 paper.
   Label the new portion 3 and 25%.
   This is day 3 and the pond is covered 25%


4. Cut the day 3 portion in half. You will have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the portion marked with the other days.
   Label the new portion 4 and 12.5%.
   This is day 4 and the pond is covered 12.5%


Now repeat the steps, changing the day and the amount the pond is covered by 1/2.


5. Cut the day 4 portion in half. You will have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the portion marked with the other days.
   Label the new portion 5 and 6.5%.
   This is day 5 and the pond is covered 6.5%


On day 5 less than 10% of the pond is covered in algae.
In 5 days the pond will be 100% covered in algae.


6. Cut the day 5 portion in half. You will have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the portion marked with the other days.
   Label the new portion 6 and 3.125%.
   This is day 6 and the pond is covered 3.125%


7. Cut the day 6 portion in half. You will have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the portion marked with the other days.
   Label the new portion 7 and 1.56%.
   This is day 7 and the pond is covered 1.56%


8. Cut the day 7 portion in half. You will have 2 pieces of paper.
   Set aside the portion marked with the other days.
   Label the new portion 8 and .78%.
   This is day 8 and the pond is covered .78%


On day 8 less than 1% of the pond is covered in algae.
In 8 days the pond will be 100% covered in algae.

Continue cutting the paper into smaller pieces, labeling each piece by day and amount of algae covering the pond by 1/2.

How much algae was in the pond for each day in the month?

30. 100%
31. 50%
32. 25%
33. 12.5%
34. 6.25%
35. 3.125%
36. 1.56%
37. .78%
38. thru day 1 less than 1%
    
    
    There are 22 days where there is barely enough algae to notice.

Now start to reassemble the paper pieces.

Notice how slowly the algae grows is when the numbers are very small.
Notice how quickly the algae grows when the number hits 1%.

The story of COVID-19 is the story of the algae in the pond. It seems as if small numbers mean things are just fine and then only a few days later, we are in lockdowns, facing fines for going out and having our lives disrupted.

This is because 1% isn't fine. 1% is 8 days from covering the entire pond. 1% is a tipping point.

The story of COVID-19 is also the story of the power of 1. One may not seem to be a big number compared to all the other numbers and sequences of numbers. 1 algae is all it takes to cover a pond in 30 days.

All it takes is 1.

The Pond